Economy / Society

“印度化”有如下特点:

1、上、下层生殖隔离,互相不通婚,类似有种姓制度。

2、国内有2%的世界级精英,10%的正常人,剩下的是糊涂蛋;大家住在一起,但互相没义务。

3、少量上层精英,接受精英教育;其他大部分下层人,接受随机教育,自生自灭,自由发展。事实上整个国家很自由,上、下层互相没有义务。你爱干啥干啥,只要不影响其他人,想干啥都没人管你,倒了霉也没人管你。

4、整个国家宗教氛围浓厚,老百姓都有种“认命”的美德;越底层越反智,连基本的科学常识都不接受。

6、政府内部各自为政,也就是大家说的,“散装的”。

国家财政吃紧,从富人收不上税(利益集团游说减税),压力主要在中产。无法投资教育,底层只能“快乐教育“。

普通人买房贷款,首付一般是30%,也就是3倍多杠杆,这可能已经是绝大多数人一生中能用到的最高的杠杆率了,如果通过信用卡套现,倒是也可以凑到十倍以上杠杆,但是大部分人并不敢这么玩,因为啥我们一会说。这也是大佬和普通人之间最重要的一个差别。

对大佬来说,低利率却是一件爽的不得了的事,这意味着市场上有很多资金、而且成本极低。当你是大佬、有很多优质资产可以抵押的时候,会发现从银行贷款、从市场筹集资金是一件相当容易的事情,而且优质资产越多、违约几率越小,议价能力就越强,利率还会比别人更低。

整体而言,赚小钱有无数的门路,却没啥固定套路,赚大钱却有明显的套路:

1、核心城市核心区的地产,只要城市发展,这类型的地产就会一直升值,这件事这些年大家也都感觉到了;2、前沿技术公司股票,这一点大家如果关注美股感受会非常深,而且巴菲特也长期持股微软和苹果。

中国人经历自由市场经济时间较短,体会不深,不过大家看财富榜的时候已经能看到了,当前靠前的那些人基本都是地产大亨和科技新贵。

这个世界上最郁闷的事,就是重来一次还是输家。这倒也不丢人,大部分游戏的结果都跟初始条件有关。

大佬是怎么用杠杆的呢? 对股市稍微有点了解,就知道有眼花缭乱的金融衍生品,其实金融衍生品就是杠杆。他们有很多手段能拿到低成本的资金,然后用高杠杆去盈利。资本主义的本质是关系,大家好好体会下这句话,大佬们开挂的人生的关键就是关系,廉价资金,内部信息这三元素在循环起作用,并且相互促进形成正反馈。

大佬:杠杆赚钱,全球避险。

华尔街种类繁多的金融衍生品是美国金融强大的根源。强大的金融让美国市场能充分利用每一分钱的价值,让美国企业的融资难度变得很低,在美国创业,中小企业不仅融资难度比较低,融资利率也比较低。但是,金融衍生品越丰富,金融市场越发达,财富也会快速向上层流去,我们上文一直在说这事。可能国家能做的,只能是加强监管,防止洗劫发生。

  1. 减税。

    1. 扩大再生产,雇佣更多员工,赚更多的钱?消费是不足的,产能是过剩的

    2. 那老板会给员工把这笔钱分了吗?提高人民收入,增加购买力?当然不会了,今年减税涨工资,明年不减税了,工资怎么办?减工资?当然不行了,工资这玩意只能涨,一般不能降。

    3. 有钱花在刀刃上,多出点钱来就应该做点立竿见影的事,啥事呢?回购股票

    股票少了,可不就股价会上升?而且股票少了以后,每股的分红也会变多,这样投资人会更喜欢这只股票,大家追涨杀跌,股市一涨再涨。

  2. 美联储要加息。奥巴马时期已经长期低息了。但川总不同意,对股市经济打击太大。按理说老川应该是要去杠杆的,不过老川不但不接受这个结果,反而继续加杠杆。

Three main forces that drive the economy:

  • Productivity growth

  • Short term debt cycle (5-8 years)

  • Long term debt cycle (75-100 years)

Transaction: buyer uses money/credit to exchange goods/service/financial assets.

Any two entities (lender and borrower) can create credit out of thin air. As credit is created, debt is created as the same time. It's an asset for the lender, liability for the borrower. When the borrower pays back, the transaction is settled.

Increased income => increased borrowing (interest is low) => increased spending => other people's increased income

Cycles: consume more than we can afford when we acquire debt, and spend less when we have to pay it back.

debt cycle: When you use credit, some time in the future you have to pay it back.

Short term cycle: expansion (credit is easily available => increase spending) => inflation => central bank increases interest rate, so fewer people can borrow money => less credit => spending decreases => deflation (prices go down) => recession => central bank lowers interest rate => expansion

But, if you compare each cycle, the debt is still going up overall, which leads to the long term debt cycle. 2008 - deleveraging. This is worse than a recession because interest rate is already low. What do we do now?

  • Cut spending

  • Reduce debt

  • wealth redistribution

  • print money

    • First three is painful and deflationary. This one is inflationary and stimulative.

    • Drives up assets price. Central bank prints money, buys government bond, (lends money to government). Government spend money on goods and services.

  • Policy makers need to balance the deflationary methods and the inflationary method. If done well, it's a beautiful deleveraging.

    • if the new printed money offsets the falling credit, there won't be inflation.

    • The income (spending) increase must grow faster than the debt (debt has interest)

Takeaway:

  • Don't let debt grow faster than income.

  • Don't have income grow faster than productivity. (you'll become uncompetitive) <= writing idea.

  • Do all that you can to grow your productivity, because in the long run, that's what matters the most. <= change industry.

If an outside investor invests $500 for 1/3 of the company, the company is worth $1500, and $1000 is goodwill.

EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) = revenue - cost of goods (COGS) - depreciation of fixed assets - labor

Margin = EBIT/revenue

Investor has higher risk than lender, but he could make more money when the business is doing well.

Senior debt = lower risk = lower return

Keys to successful investment:

  • Invest in public companies

  • Understand how the company makes money

  • Invest at a reasonable price

  • Invest in a company that could last forever

  • Find a company with limited debt

  • Look for high barriers to entry

  • Invest in a company immune to extrinsic factors

  • Invest in a company with low reinvestment costs

  • Avoid businesses with controlling shareholders

A good money manager:

  • Can easily explain investment strategy

  • Has a good reputation

  • Has value approach (vs. technical approach)

  • Has a successful track record of at least 5 years

  • Has a consistent approach

  • Invests own money in the fund